TEN @ JAX — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Mularkey

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HC Doug Marrone

Saturday 2016-12-24 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

TEN

61.6%

JAX

38.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

TEN offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
JAX offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
QB edge to TEN: Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.119 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.138 EPA/dropback
JAX defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
TEN defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 24

–

JAX 20

Projected margin: TEN by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

TEN

Jason McCourty CB Out Chest

Sean Spence LB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Arrelious Benn WR Out Concussion

Jordan Hill DT Out Calf

Allen Hurns WR Out Hamstring

Sean Porter LB Out Hamstring

Denard Robinson RB Out Ankle

Neal Sterling WR Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 17

–

JAX 38

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:10 TD JAX (11:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 11-M.Lee for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – JAX 6
Q1 04:05 FG JAX (4:05) 2-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. TEN 0 – JAX 10
Q2 09:07 TD TEN (9:07) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 18-R.Matthews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – JAX 10
Q2 02:00 TD JAX (2:00) 33-C.Ivory up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – JAX 16
Q2 00:16 FG JAX (:16) 2-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. TEN 7 – JAX 19
Q3 12:29 FG TEN (12:29) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 10 – JAX 19
Q3 08:18 FG JAX (8:18) 2-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. TEN 10 – JAX 22
Q3 03:04 FG JAX (3:04) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. TEN 10 – JAX 25
Q4 08:49 TD TEN (8:49) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short left to 82-D.Walker for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – JAX 25
Q4 05:32 TD JAX (5:32) (Shotgun) 11-M.Lee pass short left to 5-B.Bortles for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 5 handed to JAX 11, JAX 11 passed to JAX 5 TEN 17 – JAX 31
Q4 05:25 TD JAX (5:25) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short right intended for 18-R.Matthews INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ramsey at TEN 30. 20-J.Ramsey for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – JAX 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(9:44) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to JAX 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-B.Walters to JAX 26 for 10 yards (48-B.Brinkley).
Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

(4:05) 2-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 24%

(2:03) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to JAX 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.
Q1 JAX 4th & 13 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(:08) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 55 yards to TEN 33, Center-46-C.Tinker. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 31 for -2 yards (25-P.Thompson).
Q2 TEN 4th & 17 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(1:16) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to JAX 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.
Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 75%

(:16) 2-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(13:36) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to JAX 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%

(12:29) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 38

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 56%

(8:18) 2-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP

p(convert) 72%

(6:11) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to JAX 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 81-B.Walters to JAX 23 for no gain (37-K.Reed; 36-L.Sims).
Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 71%

(3:04) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
Q3 TEN 4th & 14 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 22%

(:01) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to JAX 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.
Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(14:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 50 yards to TEN 35, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX. PENALTY on JAX-25-P.Thompson, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 35.
Q4 TEN 4th & 20 at the 85 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(3:56) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to JAX 38, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.
Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 54 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP

p(convert) 57%

(2:53) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.
Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.40 EP

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

(:41) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass incomplete short right to 82-D.Walker (39-T.Gipson).