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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 38 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.78 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP