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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to JAX 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model