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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:16) 2-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.05 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model