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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 85

Tennessee Titans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 38

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to JAX 38, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 43, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model