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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 52

Tennessee Titans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 25

What Actually Happened

(:01) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to JAX 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.79 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model