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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 2-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.67 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.74 EP