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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to JAX 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model