4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 24

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model