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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 22 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.91 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model