4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to JAX 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.04 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model