Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 88

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

(:08) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 55 yards to TEN 33, Center-46-C.Tinker. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 31 for -2 yards (25-P.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.26 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 88, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model