SD @ CLE — 4th & Data

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HC Mike McCoy

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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson

Saturday 2016-12-24 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

64.6%

CLE

35.4%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CLE defense: +0.197 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
Robert Griffin (CLE): -0.247 EPA/dropback in prior starts
CLE offense: -0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
LAC offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SD 23

–

CLE 17

Projected margin: SD by 6 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

SD

Melvin Gordon RB Out Hip

Craig Mager CB Doubtful Shoulder

Jeremy Butler WR Questionable Ankle

King Dunlap T Questionable Knee

Orlando Franklin G Questionable Illness

CLE

Dominique Alexander LB Questionable Abdomen

Randall Telfer TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 17

–

CLE 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:53 TD LAC (10:53) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 6 – CLE 0
Q1 05:16 TD CLE (5:16) 34-I.Crowell right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 7 – CLE 6
Q1 01:54 FG LAC (1:54) 2-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. SD 10 – CLE 7
Q2 12:42 TD CLE (12:42) (Shotgun) 34-I.Crowell right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 10 – CLE 13
Q2 04:49 FG CLE (4:49) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. Penalty on LAC, Illegal Formation, declined. SD 10 – CLE 17
Q3 11:44 FG CLE (11:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. SD 10 – CLE 20
Q3 06:09 TD LAC (6:09) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 16-Ty.Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 16 – CLE 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 4

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

(11:24) 27-K.Farrow right guard to CLE 1 for 3 yards (58-C.Kirksey; 41-T.Howard). 79 K Wiggins reported as eligible
Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 39

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 47%

(7:56) (Shotgun) 10-R.Griffin pass short right to 82-G.Barnidge to LAC 29 for 10 yards (20-D.Lowery).
Q1 LAC 4th & 18 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 81%

(1:54) 2-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.
Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 69%

(4:49) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. Penalty on LAC, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(2:49) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to CLE 24, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 15-M.Alford.
Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 34%

(1:32) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.
Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 80

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 74%

(:53) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to CLE 23, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-M.Alford to CLE 31 for 8 yards (53-J.Perry).
Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 9

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

(11:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51%

(4:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LAC 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-I.Burse to LAC 25 for 8 yards (53-J.Schobert).
Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(1:45) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to CLE 21, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-51-K.Emanuel.
Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(12:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LAC 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-I.Burse pushed ob at LAC 19 for 1 yard (80-R.Louis).
Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(11:29) 8-D.Kaser punts 53 yards to CLE 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-M.Alford to CLE 32 for 4 yards (34-D.Watt).
Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(10:15) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to LAC 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-I.Burse to LAC 18 for no gain (80-R.Louis).
Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 61

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP

p(convert) 61%

(6:59) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to CLE 4, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-M.Alford to CLE 11 for 7 yards (56-K.Toomer).
Q4 CLE 4th & 18 at the 97 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(5:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CLE 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-I.Burse to CLE 33 for 11 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 14 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

(3:49) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-J.Meder), Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens, declared dead at CLE 22.
Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 63 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(1:52) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LAC 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.
Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(1:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates to CLE 35 for 25 yards (39-E.Reynolds).
Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 27 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 78%

(:01) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.