Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

(12:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LAC 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-I.Burse pushed ob at LAC 19 for 1 yard (80-R.Louis).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.53 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model