4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.70 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model