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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to CLE 4, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-M.Alford to CLE 11 for 7 yards (56-K.Toomer).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.01 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP