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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 2-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.44 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model