Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

(10:15) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to LAC 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-I.Burse to LAC 18 for no gain (80-R.Louis).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.95 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model