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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-J.Meder), Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens, declared dead at CLE 22.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.01 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model