4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 9

Cleveland Browns 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model