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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to CLE 21, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-51-K.Emanuel.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model