Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 97

Cleveland Browns 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

(5:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CLE 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-I.Burse to CLE 33 for 11 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

The Three Options

GO -4.28 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.57 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 97, worth -6.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model