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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates to CLE 35 for 25 yards (39-E.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.41 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -0.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model