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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 73

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(2:49) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 49 yards to CLE 24, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 15-M.Alford.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model