4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
Thursday 2016-10-06 · 20:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 💨 Windy Spread -3.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

ARI
39.6%
SF
60.4%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Blaine Gabbert (SF) -0.109 vs Drew Stanton (ARI) -0.489 EPA/dropback (ARI starting Drew Stanton in place of Carson Palmer)
  • SF offense: -0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

ARI 19
–
SF 20
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

ARI

Darren Fells TE Out Shoulder
Carson Palmer QB Out Concussion
Ed Stinson DT Out Toe
Justin Bethel CB Questionable Foot
Josh Mauro DT Questionable Chest
Frostee Rucker DT Questionable Knee

SF

Navorro Bowman LB Out Achilles
DeForest Buckner DT Out Foot
Jimmie Ward CB Out Quadricep
Glenn Dorsey DT Questionable Knee
Jeremy Kerley WR Questionable Ankle
Vance McDonald TE Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 33
–
SF 21

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 04:17 TD SF (4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short left to 17-J.Kerley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ARI 4. 4-yds YAC ARI 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 01:46 TD ARI (1:46) 5-D.Stanton pass deep right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 4. 4-yds YAC ARI 6 – SF 7
  • Q3 12:50 TD ARI (12:50) 31-D.Johnson right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – SF 7
  • Q3 07:43 TD ARI (7:43) 5-D.Stanton pass deep right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF -5. 0-yds YAC ARI 20 – SF 7
  • Q3 01:59 TD SF (1:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 21 – SF 13
  • Q4 13:44 FG ARI (13:44) 7-C.Catanzaro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley. ARI 24 – SF 14
  • Q4 04:46 TD ARI (4:46) 31-D.Johnson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 30 – SF 14
  • Q4 01:56 TD SF (1:56) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 31 – SF 20
  • Q4 01:22 SAF ARI (1:22) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert sacked in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (93-C.Campbell). ARI 33 – SF 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 45%

    (13:23) 9-R.Quigley punts 19 yards to SF 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ARI 38, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 19%

    (10:20) 9-R.Quigley punts 39 yards to SF 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:26) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 7, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-20-M.Cromartie.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:07) 9-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to SF 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:52) 9-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to SF 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-J.Kerley to SF 22 for -3 yards (22-T.Jefferson).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 15 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to ARI 20, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 27 for 7 yards (50-N.Bellore). FUMBLES (50-N.Bellore), recovered by ARI-10-B.Golden at ARI 27. 10-B.Golden to ARI 27 for no gain (57-M.Wilhoite).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:12) 9-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to SF 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-J.Kerley to SF 12 for 3 yards (96-K.Martin). FUMBLES (96-K.Martin), recovered by SF-20-M.Cromartie at SF 13. 20-M.Cromartie to SF 13 for no gain (57-A.Okafor). 1-yd loose ball yardage.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:15) 9-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to SF 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:17) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ARI 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 43 for 8 yards (50-N.Bellore).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:46) 9-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to SF 15, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:06) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 29 for 10 yards (56-S.Skov, 57-M.Wilhoite).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:41) 9-R.Quigley punts 55 yards to SF 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-J.Kerley pushed ob at SF 19 for 5 yards (80-I.Momah). Penalty on SF-11-Q.Patton, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at SF 14. Penalty on ARI-10-B.Golden, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. J.Kerley credited with return for 0-yds.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (13:44) 7-C.Catanzaro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:04) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to ARI 24, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:07) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short middle to 11-Q.Patton to SF 38 for 7 yards (50-G.Martin). Caught at SF 38. 0-yds YAC

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 29%

    (1:36) 9-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to SF 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.