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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 81

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ARI 38, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.95 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model