4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 29 for 10 yards (56-S.Skov, 57-M.Wilhoite).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model