Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to ARI 20, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 27 for 7 yards (50-N.Bellore). FUMBLES (50-N.Bellore), recovered by ARI-10-B.Golden at ARI 27. 10-B.Golden to ARI 27 for no gain (57-M.Wilhoite).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.55 EP
74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model