4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 9-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to SF 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-J.Kerley to SF 12 for 3 yards (96-K.Martin). FUMBLES (96-K.Martin), recovered by SF-20-M.Cromartie at SF 13. 20-M.Cromartie to SF 13 for no gain (57-A.Okafor). 1-yd loose ball yardage.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.54 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP