Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:52) 9-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to SF 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-J.Kerley to SF 22 for -3 yards (22-T.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.06 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model