Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(:46) 9-R.Quigley punts 42 yards to SF 15, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.26 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model