Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 31

(4:07) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short middle to 11-Q.Patton to SF 38 for 7 yards (50-G.Martin). Caught at SF 38. 0-yds YAC

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

What Happened

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP