Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 21 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(:41) 9-R.Quigley punts 55 yards to SF 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 17-J.Kerley pushed ob at SF 19 for 5 yards (80-I.Momah). Penalty on SF-11-Q.Patton, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at SF 14. Penalty on ARI-10-B.Golden, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. J.Kerley credited with return for 0-yds.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model