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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 18

Arizona Cardinals 21 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 7-C.Catanzaro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model