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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 81

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ARI 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 43 for 8 yards (50-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.42 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 38, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model