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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

OAK
39.6%
BAL
60.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): -0.044 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

OAK 21
–
BAL 23
Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

OAK

Nate Allen S Out Quadricep
Austin Howard T Out Ankle
Menelik Watson T Out Calf
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Knee
Matt McCants T Questionable Knee
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Knee

BAL

Sheldon Price CB Doubtful Thigh
Ronnie Stanley T Doubtful Foot
Kenneth Dixon RB Doubtful Knee
Kamar Aiken WR Questionable Thigh
Elvis Dumervil LB Questionable Foot
Timmy Jernigan DT Questionable Knee
John Urschel G Questionable Shoulder
Devin Hester WR Questionable Thigh
Alex Lewis T Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 28
–
BAL 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:32 TD LV (1:32) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 10-S.Roberts for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 12:55 FG BAL (12:55) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. OAK 7 – BAL 3
  • Q2 04:14 TD LV (4:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 13 – BAL 3
  • Q2 00:08 FG BAL (:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. OAK 14 – BAL 6
  • Q3 02:46 TD BAL (2:46) 5-J.Flacco right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 14 – BAL 12
  • Q4 11:19 TD LV (11:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 15-M.Crabtree for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 20 – BAL 12
  • Q4 06:38 TD BAL (6:38) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 89-S.Smith for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 21 – BAL 18
  • Q4 03:41 TD BAL (3:41) 28-T.West right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 21 – BAL 25
  • Q4 02:12 TD LV (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 27 – BAL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:24) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to BAL 19, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to LV 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 30-J.Richard to LV 31 for 20 yards (41-A.Levine).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:05) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to BAL 8, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (6:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to LV 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 30-J.Richard to LV 25 for 5 yards (10-C.Moore).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (2:47) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to BAL 5, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-16-J.Holton.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:49) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to LV 47, Center-46-M.Cox. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at BAL 6 for 47 yards (4-S.Koch).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (12:55) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 18 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:12) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to BAL 18, Center-59-J.Condo. 14-D.Hester pushed ob at BAL 27 for 9 yards (50-B.Heeney).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 14 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 33%

    (8:17) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to LV 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 38-T.Carrie to LV 43 for 18 yards (50-A.McClellan).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:43) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to BAL 12, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%

    (:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 29%

    (10:47) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to LV 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie. PENALTY on BAL-11-K.Aiken, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LV 8.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:53) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 62 yards to BAL 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 14-D.Hester to BAL 28 for 13 yards (18-A.Holmes).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (2:46) 5-J.Flacco right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:22) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to BAL 23, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:14) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to LV 28, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 14 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:50) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to BAL 23, Center-59-J.Condo. 14-D.Hester pushed ob at BAL 43 for 20 yards (18-A.Holmes). PENALTY on LV-18-A.Holmes, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 29%

    (:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 11-K.Aiken (27-R.Nelson). No. 11 - Kamar Aiken (BAL) and No. 25 D.J. Hayden (LV) injured on play.