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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(2:47) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to BAL 5, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-16-J.Holton.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP