4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 5

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 5, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP