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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to LV 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 30-J.Richard to LV 25 for 5 yards (10-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.12 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 36, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP