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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 48

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:17) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.83 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model