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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(11:12) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to BAL 18, Center-59-J.Condo. 14-D.Hester pushed ob at BAL 27 for 9 yards (50-B.Heeney).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model