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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 25

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.07 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model