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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to LV 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 30-J.Richard to LV 31 for 20 yards (41-A.Levine).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.94 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model