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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Baltimore Ravens 12

What Actually Happened

(6:50) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to BAL 23, Center-59-J.Condo. 14-D.Hester pushed ob at BAL 43 for 20 yards (18-A.Holmes). PENALTY on LV-18-A.Holmes, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model