4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(9:53) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 62 yards to BAL 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 14-D.Hester to BAL 28 for 13 yards (18-A.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model