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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 1
Baltimore Ravens 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 14
What Actually Happened
(2:46) 5-J.Flacco right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.24 EP
- 39% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.67 EP
KICK
+2.26 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT
+0.27 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.27 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
