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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 12 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(8:14) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to LV 28, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.54 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model