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New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2015-12-27 · 20:30 TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🌨 Snow Spread 7.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NYG
50.5%
MIN
49.5%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): +0.155 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 25
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NYG

Devon Kennard LB Out Foot
Markus Kuhn DT Out Knee
James Morris LB Out Quadricep
Cooper Taylor S Out Concussion
Dwayne Harris WR Questionable Shoulder
Orleans Darkwa RB Probable Illness
George Selvie DE Probable Concussion
Ereck Flowers T Probable Illness

MIN

Anthony Barr LB Probable Knee
Everson Griffen DE Probable Shoulder
Charles Johnson WR Probable Ankle
Linval Joseph DT Probable Foot
Jerick McKinnon RB Probable Hamstring
Adrian Peterson RB Probable Ankle
Josh Robinson CB Probable Concussion
Rhett Ellison TE Probable Ankle
Harrison Smith S Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 17
–
MIN 49

Prediction missed by 33 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:12 FG MIN (:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. NYG 0 – MIN 3
  • Q2 11:08 TD MIN (11:08) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 82-K.Rudolph for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – MIN 9
  • Q2 08:27 FG NYG (8:27) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-D.Aiken, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – MIN 10
  • Q2 04:10 TD MIN (4:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right intended for 82-R.Randle INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at NYG 35. 22-H.Smith for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – MIN 16
  • Q2 00:09 FG MIN (:09) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. NYG 3 – MIN 19
  • Q3 07:37 FG MIN (7:37) 3-B.Walsh 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. NYG 3 – MIN 22
  • Q3 06:44 TD MIN (6:44) (Run formation) 74-A.Shepherd reported in as eligible. 28-A.Peterson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – MIN 28
  • Q3 01:55 FG MIN (1:55) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. NYG 3 – MIN 32
  • Q3 01:15 TD NYG (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 82-R.Randle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – MIN 32
  • Q4 13:38 TD MIN (13:38) 31-J.McKinnon right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – MIN 38
  • Q4 09:37 FG MIN (9:37) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. NYG 10 – MIN 42
  • Q4 03:48 TD MIN (3:48) 31-J.McKinnon up the middle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – MIN 48
  • Q4 02:00 TD NYG (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-R.Nassib pass deep middle to 19-M.White for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – MIN 49

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:42) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to NYG 38, Center-47-K.McDermott. 17-D.Harris MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 45. 17-D.Harris to NYG 45 for no gain (19-A.Thielen).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 20%

    (12:46) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to MIN 4, Center-57-D.Aiken, downed by NYG-43-C.Dahl.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (8:46) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to NYG 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 17-D.Harris to NYG 37 for 12 yards (26-T.Waynes).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 14 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:39) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to NYG 7, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:01) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to MIN 46, Center-57-D.Aiken, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (8:27) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-D.Aiken, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 35%

    (5:28) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 34 yards to NYG 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-19-A.Thielen.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 17 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:14) (Punt formation) 57-D.Aiken to NYG 14 for -13 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NYG-9-B.Wing at NYG 14. 9-B.Wing punts 30 yards to MIN 43, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 64%

    (:09) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:53) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to MIN 37, Center-57-D.Aiken. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 38 for 1 yard (54-J.Casillas).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (7:37) 3-B.Walsh 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:25) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to MIN 18, Center-57-D.Aiken, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 61%

    (1:55) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 19-M.White.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (9:37) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 89%

    (5:23) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 45-W.Tye.