4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(5:28) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 34 yards to NYG 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-19-A.Thielen.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.37 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP