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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to NYG 38, Center-47-K.McDermott. 17-D.Harris MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 45. 17-D.Harris to NYG 45 for no gain (19-A.Thielen).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.99 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP